Bayes Theorem | Disease problem Solved
Recently I came across a puzzle which can be solved by using Bayes probability theorem. Thought I will share that. Puzzle: If a person has malaria, there is a 90% chance that his/her test results are positive. However the test result are not very correct, There is a chance for 1% error. Also only 1% of the total population get affected by Malaria. Now one person's test result came out as Positive. Whats the odds that he will actually have Malaria. Bayes theorem: Before getting into the solution - here is the simple explanation of Bayes theorem. Bayes theorem gives you the actual probability of an event from the measured test probabilities and the skewness . In other words - If you know the real probabilities and the chance of skewness ( i.e. false positive and false negative), you can make correction for measurement errors. Solution: Applying Bayes formula ...